El Niño is a climatic phenomenon that occurs in the Pacific Ocean every few years, causing abnormal weather patterns around the world. During an El Niño event, the warm oceanic currents that typically flow from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific weaken, causing the waters in the eastern Pacific to warm up. This alters atmospheric patterns, leading to changes in rainfall and temperature around the world. 

El Niño affects different regions of Australia in different ways. In the north, El Niño tends to bring a decrease in rainfall and an increase in temperatures, leading to more frequent and severe bushfires. In the south, El Niño tends towards bringing drier conditions, leading to droughts that can affect agricultural production and water availability for cities. In recent years, the frequency and intensity of El Niño events have been increasing. This is attributed to climate change, and the trend has significant implications for our country. It is significantly increasing the likelihood of more frequent and severe droughts, bushfires, and coral bleaching events.

It is important to note that in countries like Australia, other climate drivers (for example the Indian Ocean) can decrease the strength of an event such as El Niño by altering the temperature of the Pacific Ocean. It happened in 2015 and the effect for a portion of the event was reduced.

Unfortunately, it is too early to make any predictions for the year, however, long-range forecasts including the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) seasonal model, suggest below-average rain across most of Australia this winter.