Now that the dust has settled over COP28 we had the chance to sit down with Dr Andrew O’Neill, our Chief Science and Sustainability Officer to chat about what had been said, decided and left out.

This latest UN climate summit is not short of controversy and with more than 2,000 official representatives of fossil fuel industries amongst the over 100,000 delegates registered, this was twice as many as any previous COP.

The summit sparked concerns regarding the direction and strength of leadership needed to steer away from fossil fuels. While some progress has been made, as seen with the announcement of US$400 million which has been earmarked for climate disaster relief and discussions hinting at a new climate agreement to address fossil fuels, there is still much to be done.

We had a look at some of the outcomes and the fine print behind them.

Fossil fuels and their future

Dr Andrew O’Neill, our Chief Science and Sustainability Officer, says that while a stand was taken on fossil fuels, it’s only a “partial” stand.

Up until now, COP negotiations emphasised national actions to curb greenhouse gas emissions and promote a shift to clean energy. COP28's recent First Global Stocktake Decision and The UAE consensus mark the first time the conference acknowledged fossil fuels as the primary cause of climate change and the need for their substantial reduction.

Dr O’Neill says that while on one hand, this acknowledgment is a positive, he points to the wording in the COP28 statement which he says is not strong enough and leaves too many doors open to continue on exactly as we have been. The CoP statement says “Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”.

He says the devil is in the detail – and the language used allows for loopholes for countries wishing to continue as we have been, as it lacks the clarity needed to guide uniform and unified global action. This can be seen in the following:

• Parties are urged to "accelerate efforts," lacking concrete targets, commitments, or goals.
• The term 'phase-down' replaces 'phase-out,' offering leeway for continued fossil fuel production and use.
• The use of the word 'unabated' allows exploration of unproven abatement technologies , as a mechanism to continue with business as usual.

Australia at the table

Dr O’Neill say he is pleased to see Australia playing a positive role in advocating for higher ambition at COP 28. Australian Climate Minister, Chris Bowen was at COP28 where he highlighted the critical importance of addressing fossil fuels in the pursuit of the summit's primary objective – limiting global heating to 1.5°C.

President Sultan Al Jaber convened a majlis, a traditional meeting format in the United Arab Emirates, to facilitate consensus on contentious issues, including the debate over whether fossil fuels should be phased out or phased down. Bowen asserted in the meeting that fossil fuels must have "no ongoing role in our energy systems” to achieve the 1.5°C target .

Decarbonisation pact endorsed by 40% of global oil producers 

More than 50 oil corporations, representing roughly 40% of global production, have endorsed a decarbonisation pact.

Dr O’Neill says that while at face value this is a positive step forward, there is a long way to go. He points to the pact itself which outlines three primary objectives that account for just 15% of the global emissions of oil and gas:

• Achieving net-zero emissions within each company’s direct operations by or before 2050.
• Minimising methane leaks from oil and gas production to near-zero levels by 2030.
• Eliminating routine burning of gas excess by 2030.

The latter two commitments hold significant importance as methane stands as a potent but short-lived greenhouse gas, with a quarter of all human-induced methane emissions originating from oil and gas activities.

It pays to remember that these three objectives sound simple but are likely to be much more costly and harder to achieve than it sounds. Regardless, curbing these emissions would present a swift victory, granting valuable time.

It is also important to remember that 60% of the global oil and gas production remains outside the scope of this pact. Dr O’Neill says he is not alone in wanting to see more companies joining the commitments at COP29.

He believes that without the engagement and commitment of the remaining 60%, we will continue to go backwards.

Energy efficiency and “transitional fuels” in need of a timeline

During the COP, a pledge was made by 118 countries to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, as well as to double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements within this decade.

The investments needed to meet these ambitious yet necessary goals are estimated to be in the order of $4.5 trillion.

Of this, Australia has committed to $150 million, and Dr Andrew O’Neill says this is a great start but suggests there is still scope to go much further than that.

Further he points to a worrying broadscale acceptance of some of the climate-detrimental "transitional fuels", such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which are listed without a clear timeline for their phase-out, which remains a point of contention.

“Loss and Damage” Fund: supporting the most vulnerable countries

Addressing “loss and damage”, a term designated for financial aid to developing nations grappling with significant climate change-induced disasters, resulted in the agreement to establish a Loss and Damage Fund.

Commitments to the fund started coming on day one of this year’s COP, in moments after the decision was gavelled, totalling more than US$700 million by the end of the conference.

While we agree that this commitment is a positive step, it's only a fraction of the required US$400 billion. This constitutes only 0.2% of developing countries' Loss and Damage needs, and it is low particularly in our region, given the absolute and existential threat to life and livelihood for many of our pacific neighbours.

Advancing a comprehensive nature and climate action agenda

Shifting towards a nature-positive economy by 2030 could yield an annual business value exceeding $10 trillion. Nature-based solutions, capable of contributing over 30% to emission mitigation targets, offer a crucial avenue.

This was underscored at the UN's parallel COP on Biodiversity, which issued a joint statement with COP28 recognising the interconnectedness of climate and nature agendas.

In early December 2023, the COP28 Presidency presented a series of projects with an initial funding commitment of $1.7 billion to simultaneously address climate and biodiversity objectives during the World Climate Action Summit. During the Summit, leaders of states and governments revealed national and regional investment plans and partnerships concentrated on nature-climate action, aiming to fulfill commitments under the Paris Agreement and the newly adopted Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

Dr O’Neill says that Nature Based Solutions (NBS) and environmental initiatives bring so many benefits to the solution. They not only provide resilience to climate change but also have a huge number of economic and social benefits… and have the potential to contribute to the fossil fuel transition.

Lagging progress towards Paris 1.5°C agreement goals

The finalised global stocktake at COP28 marked the first assessment of the international community's collective efforts in reducing greenhouse gas emissions since the 2015 Paris Agreement.

However, the main conclusion mirrored a familiar reality: the world significantly lags in both ambition and delivery of our goals (as documented by the latest UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record), jeopardising the 1.5°C warming limit set in Paris.

More is needed… So what’s next

The conference outcomes are a positive step forward in many ways, but Dr O’Neill reminds us that, like the Paris Agreement, the UAE Consensus is not legally binding.

He says a roadmap is needed to ensure the effective implementation of the next round of climate actions by nations to stop the 1.5°C target from slipping away.

Australia has applied to host the 2026 UN Climate Conference (COP31) in partnership with Pacific nations. While this has shown a new level of commitment and leadership for COP, we have been reminded in some controversial comments from Tom Hawking and Polly Hemming from the Australian Institute that our efforts must be genuine. They say: “Australia’s history of evasion and inaction on climate change has left its Pacific neighbours distrustful of its intentions and created strained diplomatic relations throughout the region. Pacific Island nations have been some of the most vocal advocates for an end to fossil fuel production—unsurprisingly, given the existential threat that rising sea levels and increasing extreme weather events pose to their communities. Australia, meanwhile, has fought consistently to water down climate related agreements, manipulated international emissions accounting to meet its climate targets, and used foreign policy to secure ongoing demand for its fossil fuel exports”.

There is no doubt that there is a lot more to be done.

Dr O’Neill says he would love to see grass roots environment groups having a seat at the table, He sees this as essential in being able to support the level of ambition and action required to be a leader in the change and to support our Pacific neighbours and our economic transition from fossil fuels towards a green economy.

He says he’s looking forward to seeing the next year of negotiation gets us, while countries push their ambition towards net zero by 2050. He says that there is a glimmer of light amongst the rising number of people and businesses already taking on the mantle and declaring their commitment to aspire to become net positive.

Resources:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/12/cop28-what-did-it-accomplish-and-whats-next/?utm_content=14%2F12%2F2023+18%3A00&utm_medium=social_scheduler&utm_source=linkedin&utm_term=COP28

https://www.cop28.com/en/

First Global Stocktake Decision

https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/articles/cop28-key-takeaways

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/11/chris-bowen-tells-cop28-to-end-the-use-of-fossil-fuels-in-energy-production-as-talks-try-to-break-deadlock

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/12/cop28-key-outcomes-un-climate-summit/

https://www.humanrights.unsw.edu.au/research/commentary/reflection-outcomes-COP28

https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Summary_GCA_COP28.pdf